A research team from the University of Oxford, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), the Met Office and the University of Bristol analysed UK wheat yields against meteorological data across the country's main agricultural areas from 1990 onwards, comparing this record with crop yield data collected over several decades.

The study found that UK wheat yields have generally shown resilience to single extreme weather events — a period of unusually low or high rainfall, or a spell of extreme temperature — largely thanks to farmers' effective crop management and wheat's natural tolerance for a range of conditions.

However, the researchers found that when several extreme weather conditions combined within a single growing season, the impact on yields was significant. In 2020, for example, torrential autumn rain delayed sowing, an exceptionally dry spring limited plant growth, and heavy August downpours made harvesting difficult — together producing some of the UK's poorest wheat yields in decades.

The study also modelled the likely effect of projected climate change on future wheat production, concluding that as extreme and compound weather events become more frequent, the resilience UK farmers have relied on may be tested further in the coming decades.